This time tomorrow, possibly the most historic election will come to an end. Either way the country loses, I guess.
For all the traders out there, your focus should be on the swing states. More importantly: Florida.
If you’re looking to capitalize on election volatility take note that it may be over by early evening (according to Citi), if Trump loses. Again this is based on calculations of Citi’s Steven Englander. According to the calculations if Trump loses marginally on any one of; Ohio, Florida or North Carolina, he doesn’t stand a chance in hell of winning. Unless some fence sitters and flip-floppers come out the woodwork. However, I’m quite sure that apples new app has eliminated any chance of this happening: See here
Now, before we get back to trading, I hope for the worlds sake that Trump prevails. Why? See here. Among her multiple cases and allegations, Clinton is starting to look more and more like Mr. J Zuma. The president of South Africa, a modern day Pablo.
Back to trading.
IF Trump loses Ohio/Florida/ North Carolina we stand to see the MXN rally, according to Citi, leaving us with an evening off.
However, if this is not the case, we’re looking at another all nighter (Much like Brexit). Prepare yourself for volatility.
RCP recently released a map based on the latest polling showing a Trump stronghold in the three key states, something that could potentially lead to a Trump victory and something that the market is not prepared for. Of course California has been plagued with Clinton supporters due to mindless marketing by celebrities within their respective fields.
The following chart shows what times polling closes, including the electoral votes for each state (courtesy of Morgan Stanley)
Here are the times when you should be cautious:
Some main factors to consider during this time:
Polls are showing that voters have negative outlooks on both candidates, something that can be seen here in South Africa. Generally people here talk about choosing the lesser of two evils. One important aspect to consider would be the sentiment and emotion behind each tallied state. Unfortunately for Mr. Trump, his immigration policies would see the growing Hispanic community vote against him. If the Latino, African-american and “youth” do not turn up in numbers, Clinton could be seen to take a hard hit. The same sentiment can be seen for the working class white community and Trump.
Here is Goldman’s guide to election night: